Oil could go as high as $150-$185 per barrel over the next few months
Oil and gasoline prices surged on reports that the Biden administration is considering a ban on U.S. imports of Russian crude oil
Crude Oil Brent May '22 (CBK22) $130 +11.01 (+10.24%). The market is in super backwardation. Oil could go as high as $150-$185 per barrel over the next few months. Crude oil and gasoline prices surged on reports that the Biden administration is considering a ban on U.S. imports of Russian crude oil. A U.S. ban could spark Russian oil bans from other countries in Europe and elsewhere.
In 2021, the US imported an average of 209,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and 500,000 bpd of other petroleum products from Russia, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) trade association. This represented three percent of US crude oil imports and one percent of the total crude oil processed by US refineries. By contrast, the US imported 61 percent of its crude oil from Canada, 10 percent from Mexico, and six percent from Saudi Arabia in the same year.
Russia produces 11 million bbl/day and exports 7 million. Total world production is estimated to be 101.39 million bbl/day this year and total world consumption 100.61. Supplies are tight and the U.S. is producing 1.3 million bbl/day less than late 2019. The U.S. will shift from a net exporter of petroleum in 2021 to net importer in 2022.
Following a historic shift to being a net exporter of petroleum in 2020, the U.S. continued to export more petroleum (which includes crude oil, refined petroleum products, and other liquids) than it imported in 2021. According to EIA's February 2022 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect net crude oil imports to increase, making the United States a net importer of petroleum in 2022.