Elon Musk has made an offer to buy all of Twitter.
If Musk is successful, anti-free speech CEO Agrawal is out and Trump is back on Twitter.
Elon Musk has made an offer to buy all of Twitter. This is good news for anyone who believes in free speech. It's bad news for the anti-free speech Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal and many of his leftist employees. A self-described “free speech absolutist,” Mr. Musk has publicly encouraged the platform to allow a wide range of opinions.
If Musk is successful, and I think he will be, Agrawal is out and Trump is back on Twitter. Perhaps my own account will be unlocked from the shadowbanning that limits my posts to only 1-3 views.
Other social media platforms will be at a competitive disadvantage if they continue to censor content. I suspect Musk’s move will force other platforms to revise how they manage and censor content.
In a 2018 interview, Agrawal said Twitter should “focus less on thinking about free speech, but thinking about how the times have changed.” “Where our role is particularly emphasized is who can be heard,” he went on. “And so increasingly our role is moving towards how we recommend content…how we direct people’s attention.”
Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey infamously censored The Post over its Hunter Biden email exposés, banned President Trump and suspended former Customs and Border Patrol Commissioner Mark Morgan for tweeting favorably about the border wall.
Suspecting Musk would take over the company, I valued Twitter between 35-45% above Twitter's market value, prior to the offer. The CEO and the Board are the problem. It’s easier for Musk to buy the entire company. Two reasons: (1) Less hassle dealing with other shareholders and their representatives on the Board, and (2) more upside returns for Musk if the restructuring pays off.
Best to replace the CEO and restructure Board, or at least remove the members who support the current CEO’s strategy. Twitter was worth $37 billion before the latest offer…Tesla $1 trillion.
Twitter’ stock could be worth between $80-$90 (equivalent) by the end of 2024— if Musk takes the company private and then does a public offering in a few years. Success depends upon a restructuring of the board and changes in strategy.
Lots of uncertainty, but Musk is no fool. In my estimation, the company's current "‘fair’ value is between $50-$60, with a potential return of over 50% in a few years. Musk knows what he is doing.
Mr. Musk said he would pay $54.20 a share in cash. This represents a 38% premium over the day before his investment was publicly announced, and a 54% premium over the day before he began investing in Twitter. Twitter’s shares have traded between $31.30 and $73.34.
Goldman Sachs, whose strategists were hired to advise Twitter’s board in regard to Musk’s offer. They said $54.20 was too low to be taken seriously, yet Goldman currently has a SELL rating on TWTR with a price target of just $30 per share. Mr. Musk began buying Twitter shares on Jan. 31, when the stock traded at $36.83, according to a filing earlier this month. Twitter’s Board is in a pinch and could fend Musk off with a poison pill.
Mr. Musk polled his followers on Twitter for their thoughts on whether the social network adheres to free-speech principles. In the poll, 70% of the more than 2 million respondents voted no. Musk, with more than 80 million followers on Twitter, has been one of its most vocal critics.