Latest 3Q22 GDP estimate: 2.9 percent
Stronger than expected labor statistics drive Atlanta FED economic growth estimates.
The Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates until growth and labor statistics weaken. Bonds and stocks hit as higher yields drive P/Es and earnings down. GDP estimates will likely weaken in the fourth-quarter and first quarter of 2023 and a more traditional recession, with higher unemployment rates, will likely occur in 2023.
After this morning's employment situation report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.1 percent and -3.6 percent, respectively, to 1.3 percent and -3.4 percent, respectively.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.9 percent on October 7, up from 2.7 percent on October 5.