The Consensus Is Wrong—Again

Behind the Curve: The Fed, the Economists, and Their Broken Models

Broken Models, Failed Forecasts

Q3 2025 GDP clocked in at 4.3% annualized—another sharp rebuke to the consensus. They predicted recession from Trump’s tariffs: trade wars, soaring costs, stalled growth. Wrong.

Even the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, wary of protectionism, warned of a downturn. Reality delivered robust expansion under the America First agenda.

This is no fluke. It’s a pattern. The expert class, chained to flawed models, misses every turn. Common sense and market forces win out.

My April 2025 report—Beware the Silver-Tongued Soothsayers Bearing Bad News About Tariffs—exposed the rot. The numbers speak plain.

For context, I analyzed over 30 years of Wall Street Journal and Blue Chip surveys:

• 78% — 1-year GDP forecasts

• 97% — 2-year forecasts

• 113% — 3-year forecasts

Not errors. Proof of interventionist models detached from markets—worse than a monkey throwing darts.

Partisan bias cuts deeper. Obama’s economists overshot GDP by 44.5% on average. Biden’s hit 46.8% amid $7.3 trillion in spending. Trump’s pre-COVID team: 13.5% error—nearly 70% more accurate.

Mark Zandi at Moody’s stands as Exhibit A: inflating fiscal multipliers to prop Democrat stimulus, refuted by the CBO, IMF, and finally ridiculed by the WSJ editorial page for his repeated forecast failures.

Voter records show economists at the Fed lean Democrat by a 10:1 margin—roughly 9 out of 10 are Democrats, a staggering leftward skew. Institutional capture, plain and simple.

CBO and GAO claim nonpartisan status, yet their baselines carry the same Keynesian flaws: static analysis, optimism on spending, and softness on inflation. Staff flow from Ivy echo chambers like Harvard—the ones Thomas Sowell famously dismantled for lacking true critical thought.

Broader surveys peg economists at a 2.5:1 Democrat-to-Republican split. In federal agencies, the left tilt sharpens, fueling big-government expansion.

Truth: My plumber or yard guy understands markets better than these suited credential-holders. Consequential knowledge—Sowell’s measure—trumps abstract theory. Markets flourish without their interference. So does the economy.

Overhaul the Federal Reserve. Replace its late, left-leaning economists with market-savvy private-sector minds. Their interventionist policies distort cycles, trigger recessions, inflate bubbles, and widen inequality.

Image: Fed replacement economists in action—monkeys with darts still outperform.