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David L Paal's avatar

Vaughn... thinking out loud here: How about placing a $5.00 per barrel surcharge on every barrel of exported oil, and a $5.00 equivalent on all our exported natural gas and LP. All proceeds 100% earmarked to paying down the national debt. Combined with DOGE savings, designate this as a national emergency, codified by Congress. Any hope of traction on this?

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Vaughn Cordle, CFA's avatar

I ran some numbers and find your thinking has merit, for a lot of reasons. My former work in the airline industry provides many years of experience to draw from on the topic of oil/jet fuel cost, consumption, and production. I'll change the $5 to a range of 10-20% increase on import costs and run the numbers again. The $5 is about 14% or so of today's oil price, so is in the middle of the range. I'll include sections on how Biden policies drove up fuel costs and hurt consumers, and a section on that trump is doing to bring energy costs down. Should I credit you with the idea of the surcharge to help bring down the deficit spending? I don't mind. The savings, after netting out all of the offsets, is about $27 billion, not a lot but every penny helps. I think most Americans would support this surtax, I would. Still refining the analysis...price elasticity of demand, as an example and offsets like OPEC countries cutting production to offset import tax coming into the US. Oil prices are priced in dollars, so the currency changes have to be considered.

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David L Paal's avatar

You can credit me, absolutely, but here's the bigger picture: An everyday American coming up with an idea that works. What a concept. Not a politician. Just a small business owner who gets it. If we manufacturer 16M barrels a day, and we do, the savings would total $29.2B a year in high-grade oil output revenue a year. That's a sizeable DOGE External Revenue Service addition, and one that has significant multipliers and applications everywhere...

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Vaughn Cordle, CFA's avatar

Good thinking. will have to do some research and mull it over. Energy, as you know is key to our economy's vitality and growth. A surcharge on oil imports could serve two purposes. 1) raise prices which would encourage higher domestic output, and 2) bring in some revenue that could offset government spending. There are likely a lot of other considerations but it's a good start.

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