Defining Trump’s Bull: The Steep Cost of Reform and the Recovery Beyond

The "America First" agenda, an eight-pillar foundation, drives organic growth and jobs through painful reform—akin to Picasso’s bull distilled to its essence—a vision obscured to misguided critics.

Trump’s "America First" agenda, built on an eight-pillar foundation, targets $550 billion in annual savings to slash deficits by $8 trillion and debt by $9.7 trillion over a decade, driving organic 5% GDP growth to $52.5 trillion and 7-10 million jobs—requiring painful reform akin to Picasso’s bull distilled to its essence, a vision critics misjudge but time will vindicate.

Understanding Trump’s Reform Agenda

Trump’s agenda for government reform demands a clear-eyed view of both his objectives and the stark realities constraining them. The transition will be grueling—akin to an alcoholic enduring withdrawal or a cancer patient undergoing chemotherapy. The disease afflicting our economy is unsustainable deficit spending, ballooning public debt, and massive unfunded liabilities. Left unchecked, this trajectory risks catastrophic collapse—a fiscal heart attack threatening the nation’s vitality. The cure begins with excising the rot: waste, fraud, and abuse embedded in government operations. Trimming bureaucratic bloat, where public-sector productivity lags private-sector efficiency by 15-30%, is another critical step. Fair trade policies and scaling back America’s disproportionate 68% share of NATO defense spending further complement this treatment plan.

Defining Success

Success is relative, measured against the dire opportunity costs of inaction. Over the past five years, U.S. economic growth, stock market gains, and housing appreciation have been propped up by reckless deficit spending, averaging $2 trillion annually (6.4% of GDP). This debt-fueled mirage under Biden-Harris widened the wealth gap, constructing a brittle prosperity atop unsustainable borrowing. Defenders may tout Biden’s economic strength, but it was superficial—stolen from a future Trump now inherits. With the stock market at historic highs, overvalued by most fundamental metrics, and an economy artificially inflated by 6.4% beyond sustainable levels, Trump faces a legacy of fiscal malpractice and an overgrown administrative state. His immediate benchmarks for success include averting a 24% Social Security benefit cut by 2032-2033 (CMS estimate), halting unchecked illegal immigration across the southern border—costing hundreds of billions in social spending—and stabilizing global conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

A Multi-Pillar Foundation

A cornerstone of Trump’s agenda is repatriating capital and manufacturing jobs to the U.S., harnessing private-sector efficiency to outstrip government waste. The government fiscal multiplier—a measure of spending’s economic output—ranges from a paltry 0.3 to 0.8, starkly outperformed by private investment’s superior returns. This disparity underscores an opportunity cost: public-sector inefficiency, often yielding negative real impacts, lags the private sector’s optimal capital allocation by an estimated 30-50%.

With federal, state, and local governments employing 35-45% of the workforce (BLS data), this bloated administrative state wields undue influence—shrinking it is imperative. My prior analysis projects asset monetization—liquidating or leasing undervalued public assets like gold ($471.4 billion at $3,200/ounce, March 17, 2025) and properties—could generate $200 billion annually, one of eight pillars in Trump’s multidimensional foundation. Combined with regulatory cuts ($200 billion/year), tariffs ($150 billion/year), spending reductions ($200 billion/year), and ending global conflicts, these measures could reduce deficits by $8 trillion and debt by $9.7 trillion over a decade, per my refined estimates.

Monetizing Government Assets

Monetizing gold and properties means liquidating or leasing government-owned assets—such as the 147.3 million ounces of gold at Fort Knox or vast tracts of federal land and buildings—to generate cash inflows. Trump’s “America First” agenda is built on a multi-faceted eight-pillar foundation, designed to cultivate an economy that grows organically and sustainably, free from government-funded pork that artificially inflates the economy and markets, only to end in contraction, higher unemployment, and greater economic hardship for citizens. One pillar, for instance, involves sealing a wide-open border—exploited by Democrats to boost electoral votes—slashing the hundreds of billions spent on social programs, education, transportation, housing, food, and cash handouts for the estimated 20+ million illegal immigrants welcomed under the Biden-Harris administration’s policies.

Valuing Assets and Strengthening the Balance Sheet

Based on my midpoint of a range, I estimate this monetization yields $200 billion annually, a reasonable approximation and another key pillar. These assets, currently undervalued on the public’s balance sheet, should be marked-to-market to reflect their true economic value; for example, gold, carried at $42.22 per ounce ($6.2 billion), is worth $471.4 billion at today’s $3,200 per ounce market price, as of March 17, 2025. This approach, through outright sales or leases, strengthens a dangerously overleveraged balance sheet burdened by unfunded liabilities—obligations like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid not captured in the $36 trillion gross federal debt figure.

Lowering Capital Costs is Critical

By unlocking this capital, approximately $200 billion per year based on my midpoint of a range, the strategy reduces deficit spending and total debt, alleviating pressure on the long end of the yield curve. Specifically, it lowers the 10-year Treasury yield—the discount rate used to value future cash flows into present terms—curtailing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. This deflationary measure mitigates the negative compounding of debt, akin to a credit card balance spiraling out of control with minimum payments, thereby stabilizing the nation’s fiscal health. It also lowers the cost of these assets, a form of capital; the more capital available, the lower its cost, which in turn drives growth by making it easier for companies and individuals to invest and spend.

Pro-Growth Tax Cuts: Revisiting Revenue Impacts

My initial estimates projected that extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and further reducing corporate tax rates from 21% to 15% would increase upfront spending by $300 billion annually—split between $100-$150 billion for corporate cuts and $100-$150 billion to sustain individual provisions. However, when Trump and Republicans enacted the TCJA in December 2017, effective 2018, the CBO underestimated the tax revenue spurred by these pro-growth policies. The CBO’s April 2018 forecast projected a $1.9 trillion deficit increase over 2018-2028, yet actual revenues from 2018-2024 reached $29.5 trillion against a pre-TCJA $28.5 trillion estimate—a $1 trillion nominal overrun, or roughly $500 billion in real terms after a 25% inflation adjustment (BEA data). This $1.4 trillion shortfall below the CBO’s loss estimate reflects underestimated GDP growth and tax base expansion.

Government and academic economists, perpetually a day late and a dollar short, falter with static analysis—overestimating government spending-driven growth and underestimating revenue from an expanding tax base. Dynamic analysis, accounting for behavioral shifts from incentives returning capital to the private sector, better projects my $52.5 trillion GDP by 2035—a $10.5 trillion leap over the CBO’s $42 trillion baseline.

Tax Cuts Reversed: Debunking the Critics

Critics of the 2017 TCJA forecast a tax bonanza for the wealthy and a revenue implosion, but dynamic outcomes disproved their narrative. My analysis of IRS data post-TCJA reveals the top 1% boosted their federal income tax share from 37.3% in 2017 to 42.3% in 2020, despite their income share edging up only from 19.7% to 22.2%. Conversely, the bottom 50% of earners saw their tax share decline from 3.1% to 2.8%, reaping approximately 60% of the $1.5 trillion net tax relief over 2018-2024—directly contradicting the regressive windfall claims and the oft-repeated Democratic falsehoods—claiming tax cuts solely enriched billionaires—crumble under scrutiny. Static models overlooked behavioral responses; reallocating capital to the private sector delivered results.

The Longer-Term Bull Case

Trump’s economic vision is a complex mosaic, requiring the largest pieces—deficit reduction, border security, trade fairness—to be set first. A better analogy is Picasso’s bull: starting with a detailed form, he distilled it to its essence through iterative refinement. Trump’s masterpiece remains unfinished and underappreciated—critics fixate on flaws, missing the broader bull he envisions, a clarity eluding most. Success hinges on averting fiscal collapse, then fostering organic growth. Short-term pain—market corrections, rising unemployment, declining home values—will precede recovery, a negative wealth effect contracting the economy before sustainable prosperity emerges. Higher tariffs, sweeping spending cuts, and a leaner federal workforce will ignite contentious yet misguided debate but remain indispensable.

This discovery-driven process refines assumptions into knowledge as new data emerges, projecting a 5% nominal GDP growth to $52.5 trillion by 2035—$10.5 trillion above the CBO’s $42 trillion baseline—within a framework prioritizing fiscal sanity and economic resilience.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The Eight Pillars of Reform

Trump’s “America First” agenda rests on an eight-pillar foundation, each refined from my prior analysis to excise fiscal rot and cultivate sustainable growth:

1. Monetizing Gold and Properties: Unlocks $200 billion annually, marking assets to market (e.g., gold at $471.4 billion).

2. Cutting Regulatory Costs: Saves $200 billion yearly, slashing inefficiencies.

3. Expanded Tariffs: Nets $150 billion annually, rebalancing trade.

4. Government Spending Cuts: Trims $200 billion yearly, excising waste.

5. Pro-Growth Tax Cuts: Sustains 5% GDP growth, driving $10.5 trillion over the CBO baseline.

6. Trade Deficit Reduction: Cuts $1.2 trillion goods deficit, boosting GDP by $100 billion/year.

7. Securing the Border: Halts billions in social spending on 20+ million illegal immigrants.

8. Ending Chaos and Wars: Curtails hundreds of billions in military spending, fostering global peace and prosperity.

These pillars yield $550 billion in annual savings, cutting deficits by $8 trillion and debt by $9.7 trillion over a decade, per my estimates, while fostering organic 5% nominal GDP growth to $52.5 trillion and 7-10 million jobs after a painful reform period. This tough-to-swallow medicine—market corrections and economic contraction—must precede recovery, a core message misunderstood by critics, including Keynesian economists who champion central planning by bureaucrats devoid of the consequential knowledge held by millions of businesses and families essential for growth, housing, and sustenance. Trump’s masterpiece, his "America First" agenda, is coming into focus, and his detractors will once again be proven wrong. Like Picasso’s iterative refinements of his famous bull illustration, distilling it to its essence, crafting this economic vision demands time and effort—a masterpiece in the making.

Disclaimer: This analysis, grounded in my CFA expertise, reflects my assumptions and research, not Trump’s team, building on prior findings with refined estimates. While actual outcomes will diverge, this framework enables ongoing refinement as new data emerges, ballparking key figures to guide future analysis.

Pablo Picasso’s ‘The Bull,’ a series of 11 lithographs crafted between 1945 and 1946