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JasonT's avatar

Great read. Every new technology must eventually pass the cost/benefit analysis for the first wave to survive. If AI follows the path of the railroad industry, there will be a lot of blood on the table before the benefit supports the reduced cost. And that assumes the benefit will pay for variable costs.

I’m concentrating on the picks and shovels supporting the tech, and that may not be an entirely safe play.

Vaughn Cordle, CFA's avatar

Let me know what pick and shovel companies you find attractive!

JasonT's avatar

Energy, metals, pipelines, machinery. Filtered on fundamentals including dividend regularity in most cases. CVX, CNQ, WMB, ETN, CAT, RIG for a little excitement.

Vaughn Cordle, CFA's avatar

very good. will take a closer look when time allows. I have a list also that I've been going through.

The Musings of the Big Red Car's avatar

Brilliant analysis.

In capital intensive/highly regulated/politicized businesses, the winners are the ones who can actually raise the capital, get the regulatory approvals, and deal with the grass roots politics.

Failure to clear these hurdles in a timely manner dooms the initiative even when the underlying idea is superior.

In business you don’t get what you deserve; you get what you negotiate.